High Stakes Fixed Limit Holdem Turn Strategy

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Although many of the big decisions must be made pre-flop and on the flop, a lot of money can be won and lost on the turn and the river. The turn and river decisions are often much more related to the math involved, whereas pre-flop and the flop involve math, but also include a lot more leveling and outplaying your opponent. If you play the turn and river simply on the math, you can do very well, assuming you made good decisions before the flop and on the flop.

In general, there is less bluffing after the flop, since many players know that math will often dictate the decisions made. However, very good players also know this and will try to manipulate the math involved. This is of course what you should be doing. It is better to be aggressive against good players since less experienced players will make bad calls even when the math is against them.

So how do we manipulate the math? Well, if we knew what our opponents held then of course this would be easy. However, that is the beauty of hold’em, we know some of the cards our opponent is using, but we have only partial information. So we must make guesses and assumptions. These are made using the board cards, the betting patterns, our opponent’s tendencies, and our hole cards (mostly for blockers of their likely hands).

Opponents who play very straight-up are perhaps the easiest to play on the turn. These players rarely bluff on the turn and play their draws face-up. They play passively without a monster and make it easy to read and manipulate their hands. Against these players, bluffs and semi-bluffs can be very effective. A second pair type hand might be a good spot to semi-bluff since this opponent will likely play their hand with their cards on the table, so to speak.

The semi-bluff, in fact, can have a more profound effect on the turn than it does even on the flop. This is because, as we stated, people tend to bluff less on the turn, more-so playing their hands for their face value. Even against very aggressive, strong players, a semi-bluff can be a very valuable tool. They will use it at will, and sometimes the most effective defense against it is another semi-bluff. This of course can create some very large pots and very interesting situations, where a call on the river with an otherwise very weak hand can make sense, simply because of the pot-odds gained from such a large pot.

The one type of player you do not want to semi-bluff are generally the weakest players. They will often make calls that you would not expect a strong player to make and play somewhat more erratically, thereby lessening the effects of the semi-bluff.

Another thing to keep in mind on the turn is what your hand likely looks like to other players. It is far easier to be aggressive on the turn when you have been aggressive on previous streets. This is especially true when the board is representative of a strong hand that you might have. You can also use scare cards to your advantage on the turn when playing against opponents who tend to fold too often. Care must be taken though, since a strong player might call on a scare card simply based on the math alone (pot-odds versus the likelihood of a winning hand).

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